JMT permit lottery: Yosemite vs. Inyo, odds & how they differ
The John Muir Trail is the trip most people associate with brutal permit odds, and for one specific starting point, that reputation is earned. But the JMT has two ends, and the entry point you choose changes your permit odds more than almost any other decision you’ll make about this trip.
Ridgefold’s route measurement of the full JMT comes to 207 miles with 38,186 feet of gain across 17 typical days. Wherever you start, that’s the trip you’re eventually doing; the question is which lottery gets you onto it.
Quick facts
| Distance | 207 mi, Yosemite Valley to Mount Whitney |
| Days | 15–21 typical, this site’s data uses 17 |
| Elevation gain | ~38,200 ft |
| Southbound start | Happy Isles, Yosemite Valley (most competitive) |
| Northbound start | Whitney Portal (meaningfully less competitive) |
| Lottery windows | Different for each end; apply for the direction you choose separately |
Starting from Yosemite (southbound, Happy Isles)
This is the classic JMT experience, the direction roughly 90 to 96 percent of hikers take, and the hardest permit to win. Yosemite issues only 45 wilderness permits per day for exiting via the JMT corridor. Sources disagree on the exact split between the Happy Isles and Lyell Canyon trailheads within that total, so confirm the current breakdown directly with Yosemite rather than relying on any single third-party figure (NPS Yosemite wilderness permits).
About 60% of permits are released through the advance lottery 168 days (24 weeks) before your start date. NPS’s own page states the remaining roughly 40% become available online, first-come first-served, 7 days before your start date at 7am Pacific, not as an in-person walk-up the day before (NPS). The lottery application window itself runs about a week, roughly matched to your target start date 168 days out; confirm your specific window’s exact dates on Recreation.gov once you know your target start date, since third-party worked examples don’t always line up with the 168-day rule exactly.
Odds for the Happy Isles quota are reported inconsistently across sources, ranging from roughly 2% to 10% or more depending on how a source defines “odds” (per date, per applicant, or per choice). Treat any single number with caution and confirm current figures against Yosemite’s own wilderness permit page before applying (NPS); whatever the exact figure, this is among the most competitive permits covered on this site.
Starting from Whitney Portal (northbound)
This is the less-discussed option, and it’s dramatically less competitive. Hiking the JMT north from Whitney Portal to Yosemite uses a separate lottery through Inyo National Forest, applying in February with results in March (search-sourced permit guides; confirm current dates with Inyo National Forest).
Odds run meaningfully higher than the Yosemite side, though they vary a lot by month: one permit-tracking source reports roughly 34% in July, 40% in August, and 66% in September, with even better odds in the May, June, and October shoulder months (search-sourced permit guides; that same source separately reports JMT-specific backpacking success around 15% overall, noticeably lower than its month-by-month day-hike figures, so treat all of these as approximate and verify against current-year data before counting on a specific number).
The tradeoff: starting at Whitney Portal means your first miles climb straight toward the Whitney summit area, over 13,000 feet, with none of the gradual, lower-elevation acclimatization the Yosemite start provides. That’s a real physical consideration, not just a permit strategy.
Other entry points
Beyond the two main ends, various trailheads on the eastern Sierra (through Inyo National Forest) can access the JMT corridor with their own separate, often less competitive permit processes (search-sourced permit guides). These typically mean hiking a partial JMT section rather than the full Yosemite-to-Whitney traverse, but they’re worth knowing about if your goal is experiencing the trail rather than completing the exact classic start and end points.
Which should you choose?
If completing the trail exactly as most people picture it, starting in Yosemite Valley and finishing near Whitney, matters to you, the Happy Isles southbound lottery is the one to enter, understanding the odds are genuinely long. If you’re more flexible about which direction you hike, starting northbound from Whitney Portal gets you the same trail, in reverse, with meaningfully better odds, especially outside peak summer.
Frequently asked questions
Is it really easier to get a JMT permit from Whitney Portal than from Yosemite?
Generally yes, based on the odds each lottery reports, though the exact numbers are reported inconsistently across sources. Whitney Portal’s northbound lottery tends to run meaningfully higher than the Happy Isles southbound quota from Yosemite, especially outside peak summer. Confirm current-year figures directly with the managing agency before relying on any specific number, since both estimates and permit systems change.
Does starting from Whitney Portal mean a harder trip?
The first stretch is harder in one specific way: your early miles climb toward 13,000 feet with no acclimatization days first, unlike starting in Yosemite Valley at a much lower elevation and gaining altitude gradually over the trip’s first week.
When should I apply for the JMT lottery?
For the Yosemite (southbound) side, roughly 168 days (24 weeks) before your target start date, during that date’s specific weeklong application window. For Whitney Portal (northbound), the Inyo National Forest lottery runs in February for the season ahead. Confirm both windows directly with the respective agency each year, since dates shift.
Can I hike just part of the JMT instead of the full 207 miles?
Yes. Various eastern Sierra trailheads through Inyo National Forest provide access to sections of the JMT corridor with their own, often more accessible permits, if completing the entire Yosemite-to-Whitney route isn’t the goal.
Ridgefold has the John Muir Trail pre-loaded with the real route and elevation profile in either direction, so once your permit lands, you can build the day-by-day itinerary around your actual entry point. See the full trail page for the elevation chart and difficulty rating first.